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Global Guessing Weekly Podcast (GGWP) and The Right Side of Maybe. GGWP is a weekly podcast about geopolitics and the science of forecasting hosted by the co-founders of globalguessing.com, Clay Graubard and Andrew Eaddy. Andrew and Clay also host the guest-focused, The Right Side of Maybe: A new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters.
Episodes
Sunday Apr 25, 2021
Sunday Apr 25, 2021
What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right?
Andrew and Clay are flying solo in this week's episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week, we discuss our recent forecast on renewed fighting in the Donbass region between Russia and Ukraine and our reactions to recent news of Russian troops withdrawal. We also dive deep into the "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" paper by Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock, and Barb Mellers. We concluded this week's episode by discussing our upcoming forecast on Peru's 2021 election for President.
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