Global Guessing Podcasts

War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting (GGWP 10)

What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right?

Andrew and Clay are flying solo in this week's episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week, we discuss our recent forecast on renewed fighting in the Donbass region between Russia and Ukraine and our reactions to recent news of Russian troops withdrawal. We also dive deep into the "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" paper by Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock, and Barb Mellers. We concluded this week's episode by discussing our upcoming forecast on Peru's 2021 election for President.

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✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines

In early 2020, when discussion around a Covid-19 vaccine first started, our guest made a forecast regarding vaccine roll-outs that ended up being spot on. Dr. David Manheim—a Superforecaster at Good Judgement, top-ranked forecaster on Metaculus, researcher, and public policy whiz—got this question right, beating a crowd of superforecasters and showcasing his strong forecasting ability.

In this second episode of The Right Side of Maybe, we spoke to Dr. Manheim about his introduction to forecasting, his views on how to improve forecasts with some basic techniques, and the concept of Minimal Valuable Forecasts before digging deeper into his impressive Covid-19 prediction. We also spoke to Dr. Manheim about how forecasting plays a role in his personal life, and heard about his own process when it comes to approaching new forecasting domains.

David Manheim: https://twitter.com/davidmanheim

Global Guessing: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing​

Pavel Atanasov on Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting (GGWP 8)

How do the best forecasters update their beliefs? Do markets or prediction polls elicit the best forecasts? In this week’s episode of GGWP, Pavel Atanasov answers these questions and discusses his postdoc experience at Good Judgement under Phillip Tetlock and Barb Mellers. We also talked to Pavel on the strengths and weakness of machine forecasting models and different ways to handle median-spamming behavior on prediction platforms such as Metaculus during aggregation.

Pavel Atanasov is the co-founder of Pytho.io-a boutique R&D shop which uses decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pytho’s current focus is Human Forest, a double-NSF award (patent-pending) project which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. Pavel has a Ph.D in Psychology and Decision Science from The University of Pennsylvania and is the author on numerous forecasting, judgement, and behavioral data science papers.

If you want to learn about the intersection of research, entrepreneurship, and forecasting, this is the episode for you.

Find Pavel Atanasov: https://twitter.com/PavelDAtanasov

Find Global Guessing: https://twitter.com/globalguessing

Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho on Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results (GGWP 7)

In this week's special episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Andrew and Clay are joined by Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: A boutique R&D shop that use decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pavel and Regina discuss the method and design of their patent-pending Human Forest system which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. They also talk to us about their recent forecasting competition where they put their Human Forest system to test and put human forecasters against machine models to predict COVID-19 clinical trials.

Saar Wilf on What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo (GGWP 6)

In the sixth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly #Podcast we sit down with Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf. Saar goes over his entrepreneurial background and discusses the story and method behind Rootclaim. In the podcast, we question Saar on some of the assumptions made by some of Rootclaim's more controversial analyses including in their Syria chemical attack analysis before Saar questions some of the assumptions in our Rootclaim-based forecast in last week's Metaculus Monday's on the origins of COVID. And that's not all! in our longest episode yet we also make predictions about aliens and discuss Bzigo, one of Saar's technology start-up companies that creates a device which detects, locates, and (one day) kills mosquitos 🦟!

US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions (GGWP 5)

We review the new books that we've been reading on forecasting and geopolitics. We also cover the major geopolitical stories of the week, including the US-China Summit in Alaska, new North Korean tensions, and the status of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. We also talk about what’s in store next for Global Guessing! Let us know on Twitter, Facebook, or our website if you have any comments, questions, or suggestions regarding our plans for the future of the brand!

Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021, Road to Superforecasting (GGWP 2)

Clay and Andrew are flying solo...or rather duo. In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chat about the most pressing news from this week in geopolitics. Then we discuss our latest Metaculus Monday article regarding normalizing Israeli-Saudi relations before doing a live prediction on Metaculus! We also cover The Good Judgement Project’s new Good Judgement Open challenges as well as talk about Marko Papic’s book Geopolitical Alpha. Tune in for a good one!

Ross of ARGS of Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare (GGWP4)

Ross, founder of AR Global Security, a brand dedicated to providing news and analysis about the global security landscape, joins us this week. We discussed how the rise of cyberspace will change the future of statehood, discuss the implications of China's push for an Arctic Silk Road and what the Russia-China joint moon base means for their future relations. In a later segment, we also discuss how hybrid warfare will change the nature of conflict over the next decades, among other topics in episode 4 of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast.

Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim Intrigue (GGWP 3)

Andrew and Clay are flying solo again. In Episode 3 of GGWP, we cover the recent Metaculus scoring controversy and discuss ways to better incentivize accurate forecasts in community prediction platforms. We also reflect on the recent geopolitical events in the news, update one of our forecasts in the Middle East, and talk about a new forecasting website that has caught our attention for more than one reason.

 

Dr. Balkan Devlen on Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives (GGWP 1)

For the first episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we are joined by Dr. Balkan Devlen, author, professor, and superforecaster for Good Judgement, Inc. In the episode, we discussed Dr. Devlen's introduction to quantified forecasting and his path to becoming a Superforecaster, before discussing how theories of social sciences can be incorporated into predictions, why forecasting has little presence in academia, and reflecting on past predictions–among other topics.